"Should Progs challenge Shumlin in '14?"

That's the question Burlington Free Press reporter Terri Hallenbeck put to Vermont Progressive Party leaders in Tuesday's paper. The occasion for the query was the Progs' upcoming state committee meeting (at 1 p.m. Saturday at the Bethel Town Hall), which will feature an hourlong strategy session focusing, in part, on whether to run a candidate against Gov. Peter Shumlin, a second-term Democrat.

So should they? Maybe. But will they? I highly doubt it. Here are two reasons why:

Reason 1: For a bunch of lefties, Prog Party leaders have become mighty pragmatic.

Since 2008, when Progressive activist Anthony Pollina and Democratic House Speaker Gaye Symington split the left-of-center vote and handed Republican governor Jim Douglas a fourth term, the two parties have avoided statewide confrontations. In 2010 and 2012, the Progs flirted with a guber run, but backed out both times, preferring to focus on building their ranks in the legislature.

That strategy has mostly worked. 

If there's one thing to know about Gov. Peter Shumlin's legislative chops, it's this: When you're playing checkers, he's playing chess. And he's probably just a few moves shy of taking your king.

Which makes it hard to imagine the governor didn't anticipate the tripartisan shit-storm kicked up by his proposal to fund child care subsidies for low-income Vermonters by cutting a popular tax credit used by other low-income Vermonters.

The $17 million switcheroo has been panned by Republicans, Progressives and even Shumlin's fellow Democrats, who have variously called it "half-baked," "a tough sell," "worse than a broad-based tax," and a case of "balancing the state budget on the backs of some of Vermont's poorest citizens."

The debate is still young, of course. Shumlin only announced his plan last Thursday during his inaugural address and likely won't reveal many of its details until next week's budget address. Who knows? Maybe it'll catch fire once we know more about it.

That said, it's never too early to get all cynical and suspicious-like. Does Shummy have some ulterior motive in putting forward a plan that would surely rile up Montpelier's chattering class? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, we here at Off Message are happy to provide... (drum roll please)...

The Cynic's Guide to Shumlin Conspiracy Theories: