Departing residents cited housing difficulties as their No. 1 reason for leaving the state in 2021 and 2022, according to a
new report from the state treasurer’s office.
More than 26,000 people moved into Vermont from other states last year, Vermont Treasurer Mike Pieciak said. But another 23,000 left, nearly canceling last year's gain in a state with 645,000 residents.
That net increase of 3,000 was dramatically lower than the increase of the year before, which saw net migration of 17,529. Pieciak said he thinks that's because people trying to move to Vermont in the past year were stymied by the increasing severity of the housing shortage.
"There is significant demand to be in Vermont," Pieciak said. "But it's running headfirst into our housing stock. And that's putting pressure on Vermonters."
The crisis is contributing to homelessness and making life more difficult for people who are jobless or struggling with mental health problems. And employers are reporting, as they have over the past few years, that housing is the biggest problem they face in filling open positions.
“We’re trying to hire some managers right now to wonderful positions with great career paths, and the cost of purchasing something is prohibitive for most people,” said Annemarie Todd, vice president of human resources and risk and safety for the Sugarbush resort. She noted that high interest rates are adding to the unaffordability problem. Renters are having trouble, too.
“We have people who are looking at rentals more than an hour, sometimes an hour and a half, away from the resort,” she said.
Home prices have been rising steeply since spring 2020. The highest prices and the most consistent increases can be found in Chittenden County, where the median home price rose 3.5 percent in 2022, to $450,000. Statewide, the median sales price for a primary home is $315,000, according to the Vermont Housing Finance Agency, which analizes property transfer tax records.
Devastating flooding in July destroyed structures in central and southern Vermont, and that might drive prices up even more, noted researcher Nate Lantieri on
VHFA’s blog.
“This may impact future home sale prices in Vermont’s hardest hit communities,” Lantieri wrote.
The cost of a newly built home has risen 52 percent since 2019, with a median price last year of $555,264, Lantieri said.
Vermonters who left the state in 2021 and 2022 cited housing difficulties as their No. 1 reason, according to the treasurer's office, which based its findings on census data.
Departing Vermonters surveyed by the census said they wanted a newer, better or larger house; they wanted to set up their own household — for example, after a divorce, Pieciak said — or they were looking for a less expensive home. Popular destinations were New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Florida and Connecticut. Many of the new Vermonters arrived from Massachusetts, New Jersey, Virginia, Texas and Pennsylvania.
Vermont has sought for years to shore up its shrinking population through incentives for new arrivals. The state does seem to have appeal; online message boards are jammed with queries about available rentals.
As older people retire, young people who could take their positions are unable to move in. That's reducing the size of the workforce, a problem noted by the bond rating agencies that assess the risks of lending money to Vermont.
“Their concerns tie into the fundamentals of our economy,” Pieciak said.
Vermont's longstanding housing problems are the result of complex forces that include high costs for labor, land, permitting and materials. Finding ways to remove some of the roadblocks has been a major priority for Gov. Phil Scott's administration and for lawmakers for the past several years.
When Pieciak was elected last year, he brought the treasurer’s office on board, too. In September, he announced that his office would invest $55 million in housing and leverage other capital to provide low-interest loans that promote housing construction.
Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale (D-Chittenden-Southeast), chair of the Senate Committee on Economic Development, Housing and General Affairs, built a broad coalition last year that worked to reduce permitting barriers to home construction. She has said she plans to take another run at the issue in the coming year.
Sugarbush has applied for permits to build a four-story apartment building and three duplexes for employees. For now, it’s housing workers in a resort-owned hotel and offering incentives to local homeowners who take in a lodger.
Timmons said she’s hopeful the resort will be able to break ground on the apartment building next summer.
The permitting process, she said, "takes forever.”