Timothy Daniska is no stranger to the real estate market. He is, after all, the chief lending officer at Vermont Federal Credit Union.
But despite Daniska’s expertise, he and his wife struggled to buy a home in 2021, at the height of the pandemic real estate market spike in Vermont, when people from out of state were pouring in and snatching up homes sight unseen.
Every day, Daniska scanned listings. When a home in Colchester came on the market, they made an offer first thing in the morning and then negotiated to outbid a potential buyer. By 5 p.m., they had a signed contract.
It was a harrowing experience, even for someone like Daniska whose bread and butter is the real estate business. Thankfully, Daniska said with a sigh of relief, “We’re done with those days.”
Just this year, with the pandemic market craze over and the easing of an inventory crunch that followed in 2023 and 2024, buyers are starting to catch a break.
The days of waived house inspections, online purchases, bidding wars and escalation clauses — a secret bidding process managed by brokers — are done, Daniska said. “We’re getting away from some stupid stuff” that especially hurt first-time homebuyers, he added.
While sellers still have the upper hand and, in many cases, are listing homes at premium prices, those properties are no longer selling in hours. According to Vermont Housing Finance Agency data from the end of June, houses now remain on the market for an average of about three months.
“A balanced market has six months of supply,” said Brian Boardman, a Realtor with the Brian Boardman Group, which is part of Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman, based in Burlington. “It’s still a tight market, but buyers have more choice.”
Mortgage rates are another factor. This year the 30-year rate rose to 7.04 percent, roughly the historic average, from a historic low of 2.66 percent in 2020, as reported by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Freddie Mac. In mid-September, rates dropped to between 5.41 and 6.26 percent, Daniska said, potentially accelerating real estate sales.
“It was four years of hell for buyers,” said David Rowell, principal broker at the Peter Watson Agency in Craftsbury. He recalled how one house with seven offers sold for $200,000 more than the asking price during the pandemic.
Now Rowell said he’s seeing more “price improvements,” or discounted properties that were initially listed at a premium. On real estate websites such as Zillow and Redfin, it’s increasingly common to see prices dropping by $15,000 to $30,000 for properties that have been on the market for more than a few months. Armed with information available online, buyers are more discriminating, he said.
“Buyers can wait, explore and negotiate. It’s a more fluid market.”
Kathy Sweeten
At a recent open house in Barre, no buyers arrived. That didn’t bode well for the seller, who was asking $295,000 for a house on a quiet side street in the central Vermont city. According to the listing details, the modest three-bedroom, 1,538-square-foot home was last purchased in 2024 for $265,000.
The agent for the property, Michelle Hebert of KW Vermont, a statewide real estate agency, quoted an old adage: “Nothing sells for more than what someone is willing to pay.”
In general, if a property isn’t attracting potential buyers, the price needs to be adjusted, Hebert said. And “if you’re getting a ton of showings, the listing is too low,” she added.
Kathy Sweeten, CEO of the Vermont Association of Realtors, agreed.
“We’re seeing sellers who need to be aware houses are staying on the market longer,” she said. “They have to be more realistic and need to adjust their expectations. People are still expecting they can get a premium. Buyers can wait, explore and negotiate. It’s a more fluid market.”
Boardman said houses that aren’t selling quickly are older, midrange properties that need work — new flooring, bathrooms, kitchens, air conditioning systems or structural repairs. “They are really difficult to sell,” he said. “There is a dearth of contractors, and because of the tariffs on materials they won’t give quotes. Maybe they’ll fit you in the schedule in 2027. Buyers say they can’t make a decision and pull the plug.”
Even so, if you haven’t looked at the market in a while, be prepared for sticker shock. On average, sales prices of homes have gone up 92 percent over the past decade, according to Maura Collins, executive director of VHFA. That means a home that was sold for $300,000 in 2015 is now worth $576,000.
The dramatic increase has been a boon for homeowners, Daniska said. As a result of the pandemic gold rush, Vermont has the most equity-rich homeowners in the nation, according to a report from ATTOM, a real estate data company cited by realtor.com.
More than 86 percent of homeowners in Vermont have a loan-to-value ratio of 50 percent. That means they owe less than half of what their properties are worth. In Chittenden County, the percentage of homeowners who are equity-rich tops 91 percent. Nationally, the number of homeowners with high equity levels is 47 percent.
From January to August, the median sales price for a single-family home in Vermont was $450,000, and the median price for a Chittenden County house was $605,000, according to the Vermont Association of Realtors. Those figures do not include private sales or property transfers between family members, Sweeten said. Redfin pegs the median statewide average listing at $495,000.
State property tax transfer data, which include all sales, tell a different story. The median home in Vermont sold for $370,000 in the first six months of the year, while the median Chittenden County cost was $500,000, according to data compiled by VHFA.
Inflated housing costs are bad news for first-time homebuyers, Collins said. It used to be that only disabled and low-income Vermonters were disproportionately affected by housing costs. “Now everyone is impacted,” she said. The down payment assistance program offered through VHFA has been in such high demand that more state support will be needed, she said.
New construction of affordable condos and townhomes is an important part of the solution, Collins said. A housing needs assessment conducted by VHFA last year shows that the state needs to build about 41,184 new housing units by 2030 to alleviate the housing crisis. The state is on pace to construct 12,203 units. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Vermont has the fourth-highest rate of homelessness in the nation.
In mid-September Gov. Phil Scott signed an executive order that he said will eliminate red tape and environmental rules that hamper housing construction. Effective immediately, it makes energy-efficiency standards voluntary, for example, and reverts building insulation requirements to 2020 standards. Protections for unmapped wetlands have been eliminated, and construction permits must be issued in a certain time frame. The order is designed to take uncertainty out of the construction process and lower costs.
But even with these changes, the state’s aspirations to build its way out of the shortage won’t be cheap. Construction costs have also skyrocketed. The median cost of a new home is $624,000, according to VHFA. In 2020, the median was $388,000.
And pressure from out-of-state buyers with deep pockets remains strong. About half of Rowell’s buyers at any given time are from states to the south. Boardman said he is seeing more interest in moving to Vermont from climate refugees and progressives who are concerned about national politics.
For first-time homebuyers who come through the Vermont Federal Credit Union, the situation continues to be frustrating, Daniska said. He worries about his own employees who can’t afford homeownership.
Sweeten, of the Vermont Association of Realtors, said buyers who are just starting out may need to opt for a condo or townhome instead of a traditional three-bedroom ranch. “We have to adapt to the new reality,” she said.
The original print version of this article was headlined “A Break for Buyers | With more inventory on the housing market, Vermont’s real estate roller coaster is slowing down — but sellers still have the upper hand”
This article appears in Nest — Fall 2025.
Got something to say?
Send a letter to the editor and we'll publish your feedback in print!