The shock waves from last week’s historic Republican gains in the Statehouse continue to reverberate throughout Vermont’s political landscape, ushering in new power dynamics in Montpelier that are certain to influence how lawmakers tackle issues from education spending to climate change.
Frustrated by soaring property taxes and the rising cost of living, voters embraced Republican calls to help them break the Democratic supermajority’s grip on power in the Statehouse.
“Vermont Republicans campaigned on affordability for Vermonters and more balance in the Legislature. Vermonters delivered,” House Minority Leader Pattie McCoy (R-Poultney) said in a statement.
The results exceeded even the Vermont GOP’s most optimistic projections. Republicans picked up 18 seats in the 150-member House and six out of 30 in the Senate. They snapped up open seats, booted first-term lawmakers and even ousted incumbent Democrats previously considered safe.
Veterans such as Sen. Chris Bray (D-Addison) and Sen. Mark MacDonald (D-Orange) were both defeated by relatively unknown opponents who enjoyed the backing of a newly supportive Gov. Phil Scott.
“It was good to have the governor and the party working together in a way that I haven’t seen in the 10 years that I’ve been involved,” Vermont GOP chair Paul Dame said last week.
Members of the House leadership team weren’t immune from the onslaught. Rep. Mike McCarthy (D-St. Albans), chair of the Government Operations and Military Affairs Committee, and Diane Lanpher (D-Vergennes), chair of the Appropriations Committee, both lost their seats.
Come January, instead of 105 seats in the House, Democrats will have 87, plus four Progressives who typically vote with them. And in the Senate, Democratic seats will decline from 22 to 16, plus a Progressive member.
The rout shattered Democrats’ hold on power in the Statehouse and will fundamentally reshape how policies are crafted. It could influence who is selected for leadership roles, as well.
Dems who squeaked by this time around seem to have gotten the message.
“I’m personally hitting the reset button on everything,” said Rep. Matt Birong (D-Vergennes), who was reelected by fewer than 20 votes.
Republicans, who’ve toiled in the minority since the mid-1980s, reveled in their rebound from legislative obscurity.
“It’s essential that we take stock of the messages sent by the voters.” House Speaker Jill Krowinski
McCoy stressed that hers will still be the minority party when lawmakers return in January, but she also expects change. Without the ability to override the governor’s vetoes on their own, Democrats will need to work more closely with her party and the governor to find common ground instead of forcing policies into law over their objections.
“We are ready, willing and able to work together to make Vermont more affordable, to grow our economy and to protect the most vulnerable,” she said. “Vermonters deserve nothing less.”
Democratic leaders vowed to continue fighting for their principles but accepted that they will need to take a more bipartisan approach in Montpelier.
“While Democrats continue to hold a majority in the legislature, it’s essential that we take stock of the messages sent by the voters,” House Speaker Jill Krowinski (D-Burlington) said in a statement. “This coming legislative session, I look forward to collaborating with the Governor and working alongside our Republican, Progressive, and Independent colleagues.”
But legislative leaders also argued that the election had shifted responsibility onto the governor and Republican lawmakers to take a more proactive approach toward solving the rising costs of education, health care, housing and energy.
“Just saying ‘no’ won’t be enough,” Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Baruth (D/P-Chittenden-Central) said on election night.
In a statement, Baruth urged Republicans who are no longer in the “superminority” to “participate in the thorny policy discussions now underway.”
“The voters have given us something closer to the balance the Governor demanded, and success is now everyone’s responsibility,” he said.
That will be a marked change from how the last session went, according to McCarthy, who lost his seat to a Republican challenger by 170 votes. Scott signaled in January that he was going to take a reactive approach to governing, and throughout the session he did exactly that, McCarthy said.
“He was like, ‘You’re not going to listen to me anyway, so figure it out yourselves,'” McCarthy said. “That was the whole subtext.”
The governor has the entire apparatus of state government at his disposal to help solve problems such as the education finance system, McCarthy noted. Scott also has a bully pulpit and significant political capital to expend on negotiating solutions.
“He’s been acting like a pundit, like an observer of state politics instead of a leader,” and that has to change, McCarthy said.
“Voters are telling them it’s time … to work to get to yes on some of the governor’s proposals.” Jason Maulucci
The governor has regularly made concrete policy proposals and constructive alternatives to lawmakers’ initiatives, but his ideas have been largely rejected or ignored, said Jason Maulucci, Scott’s campaign spokesperson. As for finding solutions, he said, “We’re happy to embrace that responsibility.”
But the clear takeaway from the election is that voters want Democrats to be the ones to show a greater willingness to compromise, Maulucci said.
“Voters are telling them it’s time for them to come to the table to work to get to yes on some of the governor’s proposals,” he said.
Maulucci said he couldn’t speak to the education finance reforms the governor will offer next year, but he added that some commonsense cost-saving solutions, such as eliminating taxpayer-funded free meals for all students, will likely get another look.
Democrats may fume at what they say is the governor’s lack of leadership, but it is their own leadership that is coming under the microscope postelection.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) blasted the party’s losses on the federal level as self-inflicted. “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” he said in a statement.
Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, a Progressive/Democrat who lost his reelection bid to Republican John Rodgers, blamed Krowinski for not doing enough to counter the governor’s narrative that lawmakers were responsible for the sharp rise in property taxes.
“I don’t believe I saw the speaker in a single press conference explaining how the system works,” Zuckerman said in a recent radio interview.
The election has only deepened concerns some House members have about Krowinski’s leadership, said Rep. Laura Sibilia (I-Dover), who announced before the election that she would challenge Krowinski for the speaker’s gavel.
“I think the results of the election are indicative of the legislature writ large not really reflecting back to Vermonters that they hear them,” Sibilia said.
Sibilia told Seven Days she thinks her path to the speakership “has gotten broader” since the election.
Some frustrated Democrats think so, too.
Rep. Jay Hooper (D-Randolph) is trying to organize a public debate between Krowinski and Sibilia. Typically, candidates for speaker reach out to legislators privately to rally support before a vote at the beginning of the new session. Hooper thinks the election process lacks transparency, and a debate would shine a light on some of the party’s communication shortcomings.
The election losses affirm Hooper’s concerns that the party hasn’t been listening to its entire caucus, especially its rural members, and instead employs committee chairs to try to quash dissent.
“In terms of leadership style, it’s pretty clear to me that we’re desperate for change,” Hooper said.
The education spending problem and messaging around the resulting property tax increases this year were poorly handled and left many members vulnerable, Hooper said. Party leaders essentially argued that the 14 percent average increase in property taxes could have been worse had it not been for the earnest efforts of Democrats to minimize the increases, which Hooper called “fucking ridiculous.”
The Senate, where Democrats suffered steep losses, will also see at least one battle for leadership roles. While Baruth is considered safe, Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale (D-Chittenden-South) is challenging Sen. Alison Clarkson (D-Windsor) for the position of majority leader. The election is scheduled for this Saturday, November 16.
In addition to the possible fallout for Democratic leaders, the election results appear likely to further imperil some of their key environmental priorities.
The 2023 Affordable Heat Act started the process of creating a system, known as the clean heat standard, to regulate the fossil fuel emissions from heating sources. Scott vetoed the bill, citing concern that penalties imposed on fuel dealers would be passed onto customers, but legislators overrode him. After key studies are performed and costs clarified, the legislation requires lawmakers to affirm in 2025 that the program should move forward.
That now seems highly unlikely. Scott has vowed to veto any program that risks significantly increasing the cost of fossil fuels, and Democrats will not be able to muster the votes to override him. Preliminary estimates indicate that the program would increase the cost of heating fuels over time, possibly by a lot.
Republicans uniformly campaigned against the clean heat standard and criticized Democrats who supported it despite the projected cost increases.
The bill drew attention — and cash — from outside groups. Americans for Prosperity, a super PAC funded by the right-wing Koch brothers, funded an ad blitz that warned voters the clean heat bill would “wreak more havoc on Vermonters’ wallets.”
The bill’s supporters called the ads misleading. They argued that helping people transition off expensive and volatile fossil fuels would save them money in the long term — and help save the environment.
Steve Heffernan, a Bristol business owner, ran as a Republican against Sen. Bray and invoked the incumbent’s support of the clean heat standard on the campaign trail. Bray chaired the Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee, which was chiefly responsible for crafting the bill.
Heffernan, a political newcomer, finished second in a four-way race for two seats. Bray, who was elected to the House in 2007 and the Senate in 2013, came in third.
The original print version of this article was headlined “Power Surge | Historic gains by Vermont Republicans will change how the state legislature operates”
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This article appears in The Winter Preview Issue 2024.
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