Democratic/Progressive gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo has an 8-point lead over incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott, according to the final poll of the campaign released on Sunday by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Conducted online between October 27 and 31, the Green Mountain State Poll surveyed 1,231 respondents. Of likely voters, 51 percent said they will or have voted for Janoo, while 43 percent say they will or have voted for Scott. The results include participants who said they are leaning toward a candidate, a category not included in previous UNH surveys. The poll’s margin of error is 2.8 percent.
Independent Brian Judd received support from 4 percent of survey participants. One percent said they support Freedom and Unity candidate Dean Roy, a high school student. Fewer than one percent said they would vote for June Goodband, the Peace and Justice candidate.
Despite the results, the survey found that 62 percent of likely voters believe that Scott will win the election. Only 25 percent of voters think Janoo will win, and 13 percent are unsure.
Janoo is more personally popular than Scott, the survey found. Fifty-four percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of the 39-year-old political newcomer, compared to 42 percent who have a favorable opinion of the governor.
Among likely voters who identify as Democrats, 78 percent support Janoo and 20 percent support Scott. Among Republicans, 85 percent support Scott and 10 percent support Judd, the independent candidate, the survey found.
An earlier poll from UNH, released in late September, showed that 49 percent of likely voters backed Janoo, compared with 43 percent for Scott. But a poll released by Vermont Public soon after had Scott up 10 points. The Vermont Public poll found that 16 percent of voters were still undecided.
A State Navigate poll, released on October 27, showed Scott with a 3-point lead over Janoo.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Sunday’s Green Mountain State Poll shows Democratic challenger Molly Gray, who held the post from 2021 to 2023, with a comfortable lead over Republican incumbent Lt. Gov. John Rodgers. Among likely voters, 63 percent said they will or have voted for Gray, while 34 percent said they will or have voted for Rodgers.
U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) also holds a wide lead over Republican nominee Gerald Malloy, according to the Green Mountain State Poll. Sixty-six percent of likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, said they will or have voted for Balint while 31 percent said they will or have voted for Malloy.
As of Friday morning, nearly 140,000 Vermonters had turned in their ballots, according to the Vermont Secretary of State’s Office. Polls are open on Tuesday until 7 p.m. Both Janoo and Scott are on the road on Monday in a final push before Election Day.
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