Gov. Phil Scott (left) and Christine Hallquist Credit: Glenn Russell | James Buck

Updated at 1:01 p.m.

The first public poll of Vermont’s 2018 general election found that statewide incumbents have little to fear.

The poll, commissioned by Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS, showed Republican Gov. Phil Scott holding a 42 to 28 percent lead over Democratic nominee Christine Hallquist. Another 22 percent said they were not sure who they would support.

In the five other races surveyed — from attorney general to U.S. Senate — incumbent Democrats, Progressives and independents held double-digit leads over their Republican opponents.

The survey of 495 likely voters was conducted by Braun Research under the direction of Castleton University professor Rich Clark between October 5 and October 15. Its overall margin of error was 4.4 percent, though subsets of the data had a higher margin of error.

The public media stations found that Scott’s approval rating hasn’t budged since July, when their last poll showed 43 percent of those surveyed approved of his job performance and 28 percent disapproved. The October poll found that 45 percent approved and 26 percent disapproved.

In a matchup against Hallquist and the five other candidates on the ballot, Scott prevailed in almost every demographic. Though the governor bucked his party last winter by advocating for new gun restrictions, 71 percent of Republicans said they would vote for him, while only 3 percent said they would back Hallquist.

Independents also favored Scott, 36 to 7 percent. Though Hallquist led among Democrats, with 50 percent of those surveyed supporting her candidacy, a full 26 percent said they planned to cross party lines to back the Republican.

The only other voters who clearly favored Hallquist were those between the ages of 18 and 44, who supported her over Scott by 39 to 30 percent. The two candidates were roughly tied among women and those whose education level exceeded a four-year college degree. Men favored Scott over Hallquist 50 to 24 percent.

In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Progressive and Democrat David Zuckerman held a slightly wider lead over Republican Rep. Don Turner (R-Milton), the House minority leader. Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they would vote for the first-term lieutenant governor, while 30 percent said they would back Turner.

Vermont’s two congressional delegates up for reelection this fall held overwhelming leads, according to the poll. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) led Republican Lawrence Zupan 60 to 19 percent, while U.S. Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) led Republican Anya Tynio 55 to 18 percent.

In the two other statewide races polled by the public media stations, Democratic Attorney General T.J. Donovan was beating Rep. Janssen Willhoit (R-St. Johnsbury) 56 to 17 percent, and Democratic Secretary of State Jim Condos was ahead of Republican H. Brooke Paige 45 to 22 percent.

While Vermonters appear satisfied with incumbent statewide officeholders, they do not feel the same about the incumbent president. Only 24 percent said they approved of Republican Donald Trump’s job performance, while 59 percent said they disapproved. Among women, the divergence was even wider: 15 percent approved while a full 67 percent disapproved.

The stations asked respondents several policy-oriented questions. They found that a plurality — 46 to 34 percent — supported a paid parental leave program, and a majority — 54 to 28 percent — opposed U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination.

Twenty-six percent said they had personally experienced or witnessed sexual harassment in a workplace, while 70 percent said they had not. Thirty-three percent of women answered in the affirmative to that question, while 19 percent of men did.

Asked whether racism is a problem in Vermont, 17 percent said it was a “big problem” and 36 percent said it was “somewhat of a problem.” Twenty-seven percent said racism was a “small problem” and 16 percent said it was “no problem at all.”

Democrats were far more likely to express concern about racism than Republicans, the survey found. Seventy percent of Democrats said it was a problem, while only 30 percent of Republicans did.

Asked to name the single expense that caused the most financial stress, 32 percent cited housing, 18 percent taxes and 15 percent health care. In the comparatively dense Chittenden County, 40 percent named housing as the most stress-inducing cost of living.

Find more results from the poll here, download full results here and learn more about its methodology here.

Related Stories

Got something to say?

Send a letter to the editor and we'll publish your feedback in print!

Paul Heintz was part of the Seven Days news team from 2012 to 2020. He served as political editor and wrote the "Fair Game" political column before becoming a staff writer.

8 replies on “Scott, Zuckerman and Fellow Incumbents Dominate Vermont Public Media Poll”

  1. “Download the full results” that is a very misleading statement that has been passed around by the media all morning.

    That excel file is merely a SUMMARY of the survey results. What people are looking for is the 606-row dataset that is inclusive of all samples surveyed so that the public can interpret and analyze as they see fit.

    I appreciate Vermont PBS for the survey–they are a very respectable media outlet–as polls are expensive and scarce (it appears WCAX is no longer incurring this cost under their new management, which had in the past been the only other robust poll each election cycle). But you can’t claim an “open data” policy when you don’t allow the public to view the actual dataset.

  4. Scott is just another right wing conservative who, like all conservatives, is driven by nothing but hate and greed. The Vermont Democrats who vote for him are either just stupid and believe the false narrative that he has put forth, painting himself as a moderate or they just dont care. These are the same type of people who claimed not to know as the Nazis exterminated millions.

  5. “Scott is just another right wing conservative who, like all conservatives, is driven by nothing but hate and greed. The Vermont Democrats who vote for him are either just stupid and believe the false narrative that he has put forth, painting himself as a moderate or they just dont care. These are the same type of people who claimed not to know as the Nazis exterminated millions.”

    One of the most unhinged comments I’ve seen on this blog in a while (and the competition for that honor is very strong).

    No, Scott is NOT a right wing conservative. By any measure whatsoever. Gun control legislation (which Democratic governors have never introduced and Dems have run away from)? Criticizing Trump? Heck, he could be a Democrat. He’s probably no more conservative than a tight-fisted, pro business guy named Howard Dean who ran this state from 1991 to 2002. And where’s the “hate” you say is driving Scott? And comparing Vermont Democratic voters who support Scott to turn-a-blind-eye pre-WWII Germans? Really?

  6. Ah well, its not surprising that youd consider the truth as being unhinged.

    Anyone who votes Republican is certainly no better than turn-a-blind-eye pre-WWII Germans. In case you didnt notice, Neo-Fascism has taken over US Government and become the guiding philosophy of American conservatives.

    You can certainly try to spin Scott as a moderate but the truth is, he moderates only to get elected. He, Gibbs and the rest of his flying monkeys on the 5th floor would have Vermont politics looking a lot like Texas if they thought they could get away with it.

    And really, to compare Scott to Howard Dean is low, even for you.

  7. I note that you did not address any specifics about Scotts legislative accomplishments (e.g., gun control, signing marijuana legalization, etc.). You do not explain why Scott is different as Governor than Democrat Dean was. I guess you dont know that Dean opposed marijuana legalization. I guess you dont know that Dean opposed using the income tax to pay for schools. I guess you dont know that Dean didnt support gay marriage. I guess you dont know that Dean was pro balanced budget and against raising taxes. I guess you dont know that Dean was fiercely pro business. I guess you dont know that the Dems called him a Republican. But why would we expect you to actually know or care about facts? You just say that Scott and anyone who supports him are fascists and that you are right because you own the truth. Sorry, but your personal opinion is not the truth. It is unsupported by any facts or analysis.

Comments are closed.