Gov. Phil Scott frequently asserts that Vermont loses an average of six workers each day, and he’s made reversing the trend a top priority. But some lawmakers say that number is wrong, and that it will change how they approach Scott’s policy proposals.
“It’s just not true,” Senate President Pro Tempore Tim Ashe (D/P-Chittenden) told reporters Thursday. He handed out a memo from the legislature’s economist, Tom Kavet, that showed the labor force actually grew by an average of 2.3 workers per day from January 2016 to December 2017.
Citing the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Kavet wrote, “While the state labor force had declined for a number of years as a result of the recent severe recession, it has exhibited slight growth since early 2016.” And, Kavet noted, the labor force is “likely to continue to grow slightly, despite expected declines in prime working age population cohorts.”
“Labor force” refers to the total pool of available workers — those employed and those looking for work. Seven Days examined Scott’s labor force claim, and two of his other oft-cited statistics, last June.
“We’re not saying life is perfect and the state has solved its demographics and other challenges,” Ashe said. But Scott’s claim “raises questions about whether you would craft policy the exact same way if the number they’re using is actually in the wrong direction.”
Scott spokesperson Rebecca Kelley shot down Ashe’s assessment.
“Cherry-picking from this small window to deny the demographic crisis we’re seeing is like claiming that a 40-degree day in January indicates climate change isn’t real (which we know is not the case),” she wrote in an email. “Why some in the legislature continue to be demographic deniers is baffling and it puts every public investment we value at risk if they’re unwilling to address these challenges.”
Scott’s “six” stat — which he repeated during his January 23 budget address — is drawn from a seven-year average beginning in April 2009, when the state’s labor force peaked at 361,177, and ending in April 2016, when it was 344,552.
If updated to include April 2017 data, that figure would average out to a reduction of 4.75 workers per day. Using the five-year average from December 2012 to December 2017, it would further drop to 3.85.
“We’re still not even close to where we were in 2009, and that’s the story,” said Dustin Degree, who is Scott’s special assistant and executive director of workforce expansion. “What really kind of shocks me is that the legislature is spending their time trying to do a math check or a ‘gotcha’ on such an incredibly huge issue.”
Kelley pointed to an analysis that suggests Vermont will see its working-age population shrink by more than 10 percent by 2040.
But why not update the governor’s signature line to reflect the more recent data?
“I think we’d want to see some more data,” Kelley said, adding that the administration would “want to look at finalized data before making determinations.”
Disclosure: Tim Ashe is the domestic partner of Seven Days publisher and coeditor Paula Routly. Find our conflict-of-interest policy here: sevendaysvt.com/disclosure.
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Mr. Eshelman said that from “2009 to 2017, Vermont lost 22,000 Farm Employment jobs.”
That is not accurate. Not only did we gain almost 20,000 jobs, but employment is virtually identical to what it was in 2009.
Have no fear legal weed is almost here!
There are apparently two problems facing Vermont. The first is a decreasing population of workers due to decreasing opportunities and the second is an overall decrease in the quality of those who may be available. Ask any employer in this state. The ‘workforce’ is riddled with people who are unwilling, unable, unqualified. In general, the majority of our unemployed are too drunk, strung out and unreliable to do anything resembling work.
this is propaganda to support the devaluing of labor by means of illegal workers via south of the border. This is how they claim to justify being a “sanctuary state”
its worth noting that our state auditor- Doug Hoffer- the guy who failed to catch the obvious jay peak fraud- is commenting here as well. Its no surprise he is towing the party line that VT is in need of cheap foreign labor…
because HIS job is secure….so F the rest of Vermont….
the same manner he treated the contractors who were ripped off at jay peak
Governor Scott and his team seem to have a fact problem. No wonder he doesn’t want to carbon tax study – he can’t deal with the facts he currently has in front of him.
Mr. Hoffer is ‘cherry picking’ statistics again.
While Vermont’s Non Farm Employment increased by 22,000 jobs from 2009 to 2017, if the basis date is 2007 to 2017, Vermont gained only 10,000 jobs (2.7 per day) in Non Farm Employment over the period.
Meanwhile, from 2009 to 2017, Vermont lost 22,000 Farm Employment jobs.
While the generally accepted payroll statistics typically cited by economists are so-called Non Farm payrolls, they do not include agricultural work, unincorporated self-employment (sole proprietorships), employment by private households (lawn & gardening, housecleaning, and so forth), the military and intelligence agencies.
In most states, Non Farm payrolls account for the significant majority of total payrolls. But in a State like Vermont, Farm payrolls are a larger proportion of the economy than they may be elsewhere and deserve careful consideration. In this case, when considering all employment, Vermont has had 0% employment gains over the period.
It is noteworthy that while the labor force declined (mostly due to retirements), Vermont gained 20,000 new jobs. That is, not only did we fill the jobs vacated by retirees, but we created 20,000 more. So while the long-term demographic change is real, it has not yet prevented job growth.
Wait, I’m seriously confused by this. Does no one in Scott’s administration understand anything about statistics? You can’t assert causation from a correlation when a confounding variable is clearly present. Asserting that Vermont’s labor trend is entirely indicative of systemic problems when a global financial meltdown occurred is ludicrous.
Consider the greater context.
From 2010 to 2017, Florida employment increased by more than 1.5 Million jobs. That’s an increase of about 580 jobs a day for the seven year period. Meanwhile, we Vermonters are arguing whether or not 2 or 3 jobs a day one way or the other for a one year period constitutes a healthy economy.
The emperor (Senate President Pro Tempore) has no clothes.
“Seven year average” – this is random nonsense.
Scott has no basic understanding of statistics or demographics: both are actual sciences that people spend years studying.