Armed with some carefully crafted charts, Republican Gov. Phil Scott has claimed a significant milestone in the health of Vermont’s economy. At a Wednesday press conference outside the Department of Labor building in Montpelier, he said that his “6-3-1” mantra no longer applies because the state’s workforce has made a turnaround.
Scott has frequently cited “6-3-1” as a measure of Vermont’s economic and social stagnation. He claimed that Vermont was losing six people from the workforce every day, there were three fewer kids in public schools every day, and one baby was born every day to an opiate-addicted mother.
Since November, Scott said, roughly 4,400 people have joined Vermont’s workforce, which grew from 345,000 to 349,400. That’s a 1.3 percent increase. Its size was dramatically magnified in the chart shown above, which covers an eight-month period and ranges from 344,000 to 350,000.
Scott showed a similar chart tracking the labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of working-age people who are either employed or actively looking for a job. At first glance it displays dramatic growth — but the actual increase, over the past year and a half, was from 67 percent in January 2017 to 67.6 percent now.
In reality, the growth has been real, but modest.
Both charts indicated an uptick that started around the beginning of this year. Last Friday, state economists Tom Kavet and Jeffrey Carr released their semiannual economic outlook report. They attributed Vermont’s growth to two factors having nothing to do with state policy: the federal tax cuts and high deficit spending by the federal government. The tax cuts took effect on January 1, coinciding directly with the economic improvements Scott proclaimed.
When asked if he could pinpoint any positive indicators resulting from his own policies, Scott relied on generalities and anecdotal evidence.
“This is the result of a number of factors,” he said, and listed holding the line on taxes and fees, efforts by administration officials and lawmakers, his strong focus on affordability, and growing confidence among businesspeople and consumers.
“Every tool in the toolbox is being utilized,” Scott said. “We’re seeing positive effects, but nothing we can measure so far.”
Kavet and Carr’s report also noted that, despite an economic recovery now in its ninth year and historically low unemployment rates, working Vermonters have failed to enjoy significant increases in wages or purchasing power. Indeed, they reported that in June, inflation-adjusted wages actually decreased slightly.
Kavet called it a “distributional issue” that has held sway for the past 35 years, with the benefits of economic growth accruing almost entirely to the wealthiest Americans. Scott was unwilling to acknowledge this apparent disconnect between prosperity and wages. Indeed, in spite of the data, he insisted that wages are on the upswing.
“Anecdotally, I would say yes,” Scott said. “I’ve talked to business that are raising wages and benefits. I believe we’ll see continued growth. We will see a natural progression of wages.”
That “natural progression” hasn’t happened since the early 1980s, but it’s nice to know that the governor still has faith.
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genesis_44
Re: Migration: IRS provides some historical data, but 2017 figures are not yet available.
My office recently released a report that included some additional data on migration. See the Data section beginning on page 58.
http://auditor.vermont.gov/sites/auditor/f…
Re. Labor Force data: The link you cited is not for jobs per se. As I said, “employment” is not the same thing as jobs (it’s complicated). Moreover, the source for the labor force, employment and unemployment figures you cited (Current Population Survey) has a very small sample size and is self-reported. The sample is good for the nation as a whole (and for some statewide statistics), but too small for reliable data by county.
http://www.vtlmi.info/lm201506.pdf
On the other hand, the jobs data is much more reliable because it comes from official sources (payroll data) – either “Covered Employment” or the “Current Employment Statistics.”.
I hope that’s helpful.
Mr. Hoffer,
Thank you for providing the information.
Re: Migration: The information provided according to the IRS data, is any information available for 2017 or is the 2014 2016 information provided the only information available?
Ref: http://www.vtlm.info/Laborforce:
June 2018 (not adjusted seasonally) Rating 3.0%
Total 353,058
Employed 342,608
Unemployed 10,450
The above website list/shows the rates per each county.
“Of the 4,400 Workers gained are they presently working?”
“Employment” is way up since November, but that includes those who worked as little as one hour during the reference week and the self-employed. Non-farm Payroll Jobs are up 1,300 since November.
“Of the 4,400 Workers, how many of these positions were considered to be FT Permanent, Seasonal, Temporary, Per Diem and/or Interns?”
We don’t have those figures.
Re. Businesses (with employees): From March 2016 to March 2017 (latest available), 10,900 businesses opened and 9,500 closed; 25,000 businesses expanded and 24,400 contracted.
Re. Migration: According to IRS data, from 2014 2016, 27,925 people moved out of Vermont, while 26,940 moved in. The data shows that more people in their prime working years (35 to <55) moved in than moved out and there was a rough equivalence for the group just below (26 to <35).
Re. Counties: We don’t have monthly figures for counties. Here are the figures for 4th quarter 2016 to 4th quarter 2017 (latest available; percent change in jobs): eight grew, six declined.
-1.2% Addison
+1.4% Bennington
+0.6% Caledonia
+0.8% Chittenden
+6.6% Essex
-2.2% Franklin
+0.7% Grand Isle
+0.8% Lamoille
+0.5% Orange
-0.1% Orleans
-0.4% Rutland
-0.2% Washington
-0.5% Windham
+0.4% Windsor
Reference sources: (3)
VT Population 2018 (Demographics/Maps)
Agency of Community Development ACCD.vermont.gov.FY2018 – Budget vs. Governor Recommended, Staffing, Salaries, Wages, Meals etc.
Wikipedia: 14 Counties, 237 Towns, 9 Cities in Vermont
My questions below:
Of the 4,400 Workers gained are they presently working?
Of the 4,400 Workers, how many of these positions were considered to be FT Permanent, Seasonal, Temporary, Per Diem and/or Interns?
Is there a demographic chart & information available showing which Counties showed the most growth (guessing Chittenden) and which Counties showed a decline, Data including Residents leaving the area and Businesses closing.
In the NEK alone 2 businesses have closed within the last few months (Sears & McDonalds).
Over the last 2 years there have been more. Not including VT Life Magazine.
UVMM nurse 47th percentile in nation! Make less then Plattsburgh and we are a Level 1 Trauma Center! Whats wrong with this BS? While the doctors and Administration make millions and keep spending millions on real estate! recently bought a building in winooski, and Pizzagelli building a Medical building for UVMMC breaking ground in spring, completeled by Fall? Wheres the GMCB o this? Its a secret from the public? Im